About NFL analysis on the new OT rules. - Newsletter 11

The Superbowl keeps giving and giving.  This time I bring you an explanation around the overtime rules that were applied in the last few years.   Briefly, if you don’t follow the NFL, before the changes, when a match in the playoffs ended in a tie after all the regulation time, the teams played overtime to determine who wins and goes to the next stage (or win the trophy if it was the SuperBowl).   The striking detail was that the team that scored the first point in any way (touchdown, fieldgoal, etc) would automatically win. The other team had no opportunity to tie the game again.   What happened? The random process (actually flipping a coin..) to determine who has the first attempt to score was crucial. The first team had a great advantage since if it went close enough to score a field goal it had a high chance of scoring, leaving the other team empty handed without even attacking.  

Recently this changed: Overtime rules in the postseason consist of as many 15-minute periods as are necessary until there is a winner, instead of the single 10-minute overtime period in the regular season. Both teams will now get at least one possession, even if the team that has the first possession scores a touchdown. If the team that got the ball first doesn't score a touchdown, or if the score is tied after each team has possessed the ball, the next score would end the game.

I bring you a simulation study from Michael Lopez analyzing the impact of the changes and how odds shift from one approach to the other. It’s a good example of how you can share an analysis via Twitter/X , some good visualizations and clear explanations. Also some cool techniques can be learned!